hackertube.io

Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola.

N N Taleb's Probability Questions · commentary · Watch on YouTube

Probability & game theoryData science & statistics

What it is

Nassim Taleb argues that evidence on terrorism risk presented in media is statistically naive, using extreme value theory without math to separate fat-tailed risks like Ebola and terrorism from thin-tailed ones.

Why Hacker News recommends it

HN cites it when arguing that different risks follow different distributions and should be judged by growth rates and tails rather than current counts.

  • 2 people recommended it
  • 2 different months
  • 0 strong recommendations
  • first 2017, last 2021

What HN commenters said

  1. “Watch this to understand that we're talking about two different distributions”

    Taleb on why terrorism and ladder falls follow different distributions

    s3nnyy, 2017-10 · Recommendation · in “Ask HN: UK Startups – Are You Thinking of Leaving the UK Because of Brexit?”

  2. “I think Taleb has the best summary of this, for all his flaws”

    Taleb on comparing risks by growth rates

    nmca, 2021-02 · Recommendation · in “Covid-19 and the political economy of mass hysteria [pdf]”

Excerpts from Hacker News comments, linked to the originals. Summaries and labels were written by a language model from those comments.

Topics: nassim taleb, extreme value theory, terrorism, risk, black swan

Also recommended by the same people